Saturday, July 2, 2016

Table of Contents

With the independent investigation announced by SKINS, I'm probably signing off here for now.  Just to summarize things for new readers, the independent investigators should they find this site useful, or anyone else, here's something of a table of contents for the blog:

Strava Data Analysis

Here I'll apply some simple analyses, at a global level, to Rob Young's Strava data.  We'll demonstrate impossible speeds, done only at night when he was unobserved, and how his performance is so off the charts compared to other high and elite-level efforts that it cannot be real.

Speed Histogram - Rob Young pre/post observation vs. others

Thursday, June 30, 2016

Rob Young Uploads Driving GPS File, Deletes It

A file uploaded to a Strava account under Rob Young's partner's name, which was subsequently and rapidly deleted, had been reconstructed by users over at LetsRun.  The file shows a 1:56 mile and suggests the RV was forced to travel too fast due to a lane closure.

Acceleration at end of lane closure section, followed by attempted backtrack

Analysis of Running Video

While this is a bit more qualitative than my other posts, I couldn't resist.

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Yet Another Bike Ride

Further analysis shows another bike ride has been passed off as a run by Rob Young.

Monday, June 27, 2016

Was A Bike Used To Cheat?

Rob Young's Facebook video upload today confirms a bicycle was used to move the TomTom GPS watch.  How many other of his activities are really bikes?

Missing Strava Data

Strava Heat Map


Using a Chrome plugin, I've obtained the raw files for Rob Young's Strava uploads, current as of 6/26/16.

Here's a heat map, made with GoldenCheetah, to visualize the large gaps in the data released thus far:

GoldenCheetah Heatmap of Rob Young's Strava activities

Sunday, June 26, 2016

Desert Misadventure - Attempt to Delete Evidence

Rob Young has cropped off a portion of a critical run preceding his presumed hitchhike from Bannock to Laughlin.  That cropped portion? By simple math, it was 1.1 miles covered in 1 minute, 28 seconds.  It seems perhaps the vehicular assistance occurred even earlier than predicted, and Rob had to try and cover it up:

Run from broken down RV: Strava vs. TomTom

Saturday, June 18, 2016

Desert Misadventure - A 34 Mile Impossibility

Background


Robert Young is a UK ultrarunner attempting to break the world record for the fastest crossing of the United States on foot.  His run has raised much suspicion, especially in the early weeks as he amassed a string of unrealistic daily mileages and paces.

Robert's crew is in an RV, in which a live tracker has been recording (albeit with low resolution, one update every 12 minutes when moving).  Investigators have archived the tracks here: https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1LT0f678T-ThFL9IhgrtywaDU9Ig.  This tracker is always on Eastern Standard Time.

Robert claims to additionally wear GPS watches, and has uploaded evidence of these activities in the form of photographs of a TomTom website to his Facebook page, https://www.facebook.com/marathonmanuk.

Purpose


Here I will utilize available data sources to analyze Robert's movements on May 18.  On this morning, Robert's RV became stuck and his travel from that point forward is highly suspicious.

A couple of the observations are my own, but this is largely a synthesis of information gleaned from the hard workers over at LetsRun.com.  Markus Mueller, team1.kml, 113, and other posters long questioned and analyzed Robert's run and the events of this day.  A crowdsourced effort is underway here.

We will show that:
  • Robert Young would have had to travel 34 miles unsupported in less than 4:33.
  • Robert Young would have had to travel 12 miles in no more than 52 minutes.
  • Robert Young hitchhiked 12 miles up Hwy 95.

Summary of evidence